Your Lake of the Ozarks Mortgage Lender: home loans lake ozarks

Monday, February 24, 2014

Harsh Winter Weather May Cause the Feds to Increase Purchases of Mortgage Bonds

"Winter is coming." George R.R. Martin. Winter has long arrived in many parts of the country, and it is being cited as a reason for several weaker than expected economic reports. Read on for details, and what they mean for home loan rates.

After making important improvements last year, the housing sector has struggled of late. January Housing Starts declined by 16 percent from December, and have been declining since November's annual rate of 1.101 million, which was the highest since 2008. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, also fell 5 percent in January from December, while Existing Home Sales declined by 5.1 percent.

In addition, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index came in at 46, the lowest reading since last May. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders view conditions as good, rather than poor. The NAHB said that weather conditions across the country led to a decline in buyer traffic last month.

In the manufacturing sector, both the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philadelphia Fed Index fell in February, coming in well below expectations. The labor market is also struggling, as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 336,000 and continue to hover around this number. Meanwhile, inflation at both the consumer and wholesale level remains tame.

What does this mean for home loan rates? Remember that the Fed is now purchasing $35 billion in Treasuries and $30 billion in Mortgage Bonds (the type of Bonds on which home loan rates are based) to help stimulate the economy and housing market. This is down from the original $85 billion per month that the Fed had been purchasing. The minutes from the Fed's recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee revealed a lack of consensus on this topic. If economic data continues to be weak, the Fed may have to rethink the tapering it has begun. This will be a key story that could impact the markets and home loan rates in the weeks and months to come.

The bottom line is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

I would love the opportunity to help you manage your Lake of the Ozarks Mortgage Loan or refinance. Give me a call at (573) 746-7211 or send me an email at mlasson@fsbfinancial.com with any questions you may have!!

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Michael Lasson

Sr. Residential Mortgage Lender

NMLS #: 493712

2265 Bagnell Dam Blvd, Suite B

PO Box 1449

Lake Ozark, MO 65049

Direct: (573) 746-7211

Cell: (573) 216-7258

Fax:(573) 693-9141

Email: mlasson@fsbfinancial.com

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

2013 New Home Sales Increased by 16%

"Cold as Ice." Foreigner. While many parts of the nation were dealing with icy conditions last week, the markets were heating up with a slew of economic reports and another taper announcement by the Fed. Read on for details.

There was a mix of good and bad housing news last week, as Pending Home Sales were down 8.7 percent in December from November. The report cited harsh weather for the decline. New Home Sales also fell by 7 percent from November to December, to an annual rate of 414,000. While the December number was below expectations, there was good news for 2013 overall, as builders sold an estimated 428,000 new homes—16 percent more than in 2012.

Research firm CoreLogic also reported that completed foreclosures declined 14 percent from December 2012 to December 2013. However, the Case Shiller 20-city Home Price Index fell by 0.1 percent from October to November, the first decline since October to November of 2012. Overall, the housing market continues to improve.

Also of note, December Durable Goods Orders (orders for items that last for an extended period of time) fell by 4.3 percent, the biggest decline since July. Meanwhile, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2013 rose by 3.2 percent. This was above expectations, but below the 4.1 percent recorded in the third quarter of last year. The gains were led by a burst of consumer spending and an uptick in business investments. This is significant, as GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity. And inflation continues to remain tame, according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.

What does this mean for home loan rates? Despite some weak economic reports, the Fed decided to taper its Bond purchase program by an additional $10 billion, noting that economic activity has picked up and the labor market continues to improve. Beginning in February, the Fed will now be purchasing $35 billion in Treasuries and $30 billion in Mortgage Bonds (the type of Bonds on which home loan rates are based). These purchases have been designed to stimulate the economy and housing market, and the figure is now down from the $85 billion in Bonds and Treasuries the Fed had been purchasing last year.

The timing of further tapering by the Fed will impact Stocks, Bonds and home loan rates throughout the year. It is a key story to monitor as we move further ahead in 2014.

The bottom line is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.